                         I. .
      ᮢ६ ⠯ ࠧ ᨩ᪮ ⢠ ᮡ-
 㠫 ⠭ ਬ  ᪨  ⮤  
᪨ ᫥. 쪮   ᭮  -
 ⥣᪮  ஢,    ⠪  ஢  
ண஢ 뭮  .  室   ᫮
宧⢮  ᮪  ⥬  筮-孨᪮  ண
㢥稢 ஫  ꥪ⨢ ଠ樨  䠪 ந-
⢠.  ⮫쪮 ᪨      
⢥ ࠪ⨪   ᠬ, ⥪騬
 ᪮  樠쭮 , ⥬ ᠬ 㬥 ⥯
।  ⭮襭 譥 㦥.
      ⭮,  १砩  ⠭ ᪨
 冷 .    ᭮  ⢫ -
஢  ண஢,  ᮡ ࠧ -
᪨ .   ᮢ६ ᫮ ࣠ -
᪮ ࠡ   ᪨ 冷  ⠭  
⮩ ७⭮ ᨫ .
      ᢮ ᮢ ࠡ  訫 ᤥ ࠢ -
 ⥭権 ࠧ  ᪨ 冷:  ᮢ -
  ਢ⨧樮 祪. 蠥  ⮩ 裡  
筮 ७. 室 । ⫨⥫ ᮡ-
 ᮢ   䨭ᮢ 㬥⮢, ࠪ-
ਧ      ࠧ ⥫,  -
 ᭮ ⥭樨 ࠧ    ᪨  冷  
६, ᯮ짮    ⮤   襭
⭮ ᪮ ஡.
     㠫쭮 ⠪ ᫥ । ⨢-
 ᢮⢠  䨭ᮢ 㬥⮢,  ⮬   ஫,
  ࠫ  ᨩ᪮ 䨭ᮢ 뭪,     -
 .  ࠢ ᮢ  , ࠪ-
饩  - ⥯ ⥬ ਢ⨧樨,   ᪨
 ,  ᮢ  , 뢠饩 -
᪨ ᤢ,    ᬠਢ  ᮯ⠢
樮    १⠬.  ஬ ⮣, -
  १, 祭  १ ⠪ த ,
  ,  ⠪   易    䨭ᮢ
뭪,    祭   ᪨ .
      ⢥ ꥪ ᫥ 뫨  ࠭    
䨭ᮢ 㬥⮢: ਪ᪮   ਢ⨧樮-
 祪. ।⮬  ⠫ ᮢ   -
, 祬  ᭮  業   ᤥ  ࠢ ᭮
ᮡ⥩  ஢  ᪨ 冷.
      ।    祭 ᮢ  訫 -
ਢ ⮫쪮 থ 뭮, 祬 ࠭  
ঠ -  ᨩ᪮ ⮢୮-쥢  ᪮᪮ -
 ⭮ ঠ.  ६ ࠬ  ண  
楫 ᫥.   ᠬ ,  樮 ।-
⠢ ᬮ७ থ 䨭ᮢ 뭪   殮-
 ६  ࢠ,     ᨩ᪨ ঠ ⨢
 ࣨ ਢ⨧樮묨 祪 -   1992   
 1994 .
     筨 ଠ樨  ᮢ    ਢ-
⨧樮 祪 ⠫ १ ࣮    ,  -
㥬  ਮ᪮ .   諮 ᬮ -
訢 楫  鸞  :  "ᨩ᪮ ",  "⨩",
"  ",  "ᠭ",  "-Daily".   맢
ॣ୮ 㡫 ⠪ த ଠ樨,  -
ﭭ묨 ﬨ ᯮᮡ  ।⠢  ,    ⠪
१砩 쭮 稭 - ⢨  ஢ 
 訢.
      ᪨ ਥ  ⮤, ᯮ짮  -
ᠭ ᮢ ࠡ,  ⥫   ஡  㧭
 鸞 ,  㪠  ᯨ᪥ ᯮ짮 .
஬ ⮣,  讥 ﭨ    樮  ,
⠭ ஬ ...
      ᠭ  ᮢ  ࠡ    짮 ࠧ묨
।⢠  ⮣ ᥭ,  ।⠢塞 -
 㪮.  室  ਡ  ᪮  ⠡筮
⮤, ᯮ짮 ᮫, ⭮⥫  । -
稭.  ᫥  﫨  ࠡ ⥫ ਠ樨, 
 ⤥ ⮤ ५樮-ॣᨮ . ,
᫮, ᭮  業   -⠪ ᤥ  ਬ
᪨ ⮤  冷 ,  ⭮, -
짮 ᪨  ⥫  冷 ,  ⮤
᪮ ࠢ,  ᯥࠫ쭮 , ௮-
樨.
     ୮ ஥  ࠡ ᫮ ᯥ䨪 -
㥬 ।,   ⠪ ᮡﬨ ᪮ -
⮤. ࢠ  ࠪਧ ꥪ ᫥,  ।-
  ⮬ ⥬ ᪨ ⥫, ᯮ㥬 
쭥襬    .  ⥬ ⠭  ⮤-
᪮  ᫥,   㫨 ᭮ -
  ਥ ᪮ 㪨,    ⢮
 ࠪ᪮  ᮢ ࠡ.  ᫥ ⮣  ३  
।⢥ : ࠢ ᮮ⢥  -
 ᪮  ⥭ᨢ,  ᭮ ⥭権 -
ᮢ . , 蠥 ࠡ 祭,  -
 ᭮ ⮣ .
      ᠭ  ᮢ  ࠡ  室 뫮 த
⥫ ꥬ ⭮ ࠡ.  ࣠樨 ᫥
 ᯮ짮 ⠡  Supercalc 5.  -
 (믮  ᭮  ᪨  ⠡),    ⠪
䨪 뭥ᥭ   ਫ.

       II. ࠢ⥫     
                    ਢ⨧樮 祪.
                    1) ꥪ ᫥.
     ꥪ⮬  ᫥ ⠫      䨭ᮢ
㬥⮢:    ਢ⨧樮 祪.   ⭮,
 ⨢ ࠫ    ஫  ᮮ⢥ ᥪ-
 䨭ᮢ 뭪: ⭮  業 㬠.
     ਪ᪨   좨     -
ᨩ᪨ থ   থ  뭪.    襩
⥯  ⭮  ᬠਢ ਮ,   ᤥ
 檮 થ   ⠬ 뫨 ᪮॥ ᪫祭, -
 ࠢ.  १ ᨨ ࠧ饭  ਪ᪨
, ॣ㫨஢   㡫  ⭮襭   -
  祩 㤠⢥ ᪮ ⨪. 
ᨩ᪮ ࣮  ࠪ⨪  業  ।   
 ,   業 ⥦ 뢠  㡫    ᮮ-
⢨   ⥪騬  ᮬ  ᪮᪮  ᪮ ⭮
ন.    ᭮ ५  ⥬  -
樨,   裡  祬   ᯮ짮  -
᪨ .    ⥫⢠ ᢨ⥫  -
室 ஠஢ ᮢ  ⮣ ⨢.
              ᨩ᪮  䨭ᮢ
뭪   ਢ⨧樮 祪.  ⥬ ਢ⨧樮 祪,
  ᨨ  1  1992 .   ᭮  -
     14  1992 .  N914 "   ⢨
⥬ ਢ⨧樮 祪  ᨩ᪮  樨",  ⠫
   ।  ᨩ᪮ 䨭ᮢ 뭪.
  ⮨  ⮡ࠦ ⥬  ਢ⨧樨  
ନ஢  ᮡ⢥, ࠧ 뭪 業 㬠.
       ,     ᨭ⥧   ᥡ  楫
 ᢮,    ஭, ࠪਧ -
 ⥬,    㣮 -   .  㯠
   ⢥ 砣,    䨭ᮢ ⥬,
⠪   ⢥ ஢.
      ⭮,  祭 筮  ⨪ -  -
砫 ⠯   ᮢ. ࠢ⥫  -
 ᮢ     ਢ⨧樮 祪  ⠭-
   ࠪ⨪ ⠪ 쭮  ,
 ᨩ᪨ 䨭ᮢ 뭮.
      砫 ᫥ 室 । -
  ⥬ ,  ९१⨢  -
 ७  ।饣  .  ,  ⠪  ⠬
  ন. -, ࠬ থ 뭪 ࠧ-
   ,  থ. ஬ ⮣, -
짮 ᮢ६  奬  ஢  ࣮  ᯥ稢
筮 ꥪ⨢ १,  ᢮ 業 ॠ ᤥ
 ࠢ᭮.
          쥧 ୠ⨢ ।-
    ⮣ ࣮  ᪮᪮  ᪮
⭮ থ.  ᠬ , ᨬ ꥬ  -
஢ 室    .  ஬ ⮣, 㯭⠡-
 ࢥ樨  ⮩ থ ⢫ (  ᥩ -
) ஡,  ॠ  ᢮  ॣ㫨騥 㭪樨.   
  ⮣ ࣮    樠.  
 :   ࣮ ⢫ ⮬᪨ -
 業, 室   ஢  ⮩ থ.
      ᠥ ।  ,   ୠ-
⨢ 뫨.  ࣨ ࠬ   ,    "--
", ,  ,  , ,  ⠪  㣨 ࣮ -
頤.   ⢥ ᭮ 䮭 , ।-
饣   䨭ᮢ 㬥,   ࠫ ᨩ
⮢୮-쥢 .    ⮬,  ꥬ  ਢ-
樮 祪    ⥫쭮 ॢ蠫  -
⥫ 㣨 .   ࠧ,   ᯥ稢  -
 ९१⨢.    ⮬    
 筮   .
     থ ࣨ  ࠬ      1992 .
( ᥫ 砫 뤠 ਢ⨧樮 祪)   -
 1994  (ᬮ  ,    ୮ ਢ⨧-
樨 稫 30  1994 .).    ।। ६-
 ࠬ .
     ஬ ⮣, ⮡  ᮢ   䨭-
 㬥⮢,  訫 ३   冷  ࠧ-
騬  ६ ஢ﬨ  ࢠ,  祭  -
  ⥮ਨ । 稭  㫥 । ஭-
᪮.
      ᪮ ⮡ࠦ 㥬 ꥪ -
室 ⥬ ⥫.  ।⢥ 䨪㥬묨 -
稭, ⠢訬 "⮢",  "ઠ"  ᮢ ࠡ,
⠫       ਢ⨧樮 祪,  騥 
६. ࠢ  ᪨ ,   ᯮ짮 -
᪨ ⥫, 騥  ᪮  ⥭ᨢ
.   ⢥  ⠪  ⥫ 㯨 ᮫
, ⥬   ,   ⠪ ᮫  祭
 業  .  ६  楯묨 稭 
ᯮ짮  ᮮ⢥騥 ,  祬   ࠢ-
 ࠫ  ஢ ᬠਢ ᪮ 鸞.
               2) ⮤  冷 .
      ⭮, 冷  뢠  ᫥⥫-
 ᫮ 祭 ᪮ ⥫, ࠪਧ-
饣  樠쭮-᪮   ஭-
 浪. ࠫ   ࠧ -
   ᪮쪮 ⠢: ७, ᥧ  
砩 .   㡥 祡   饩  ⥮ਨ
⨪ 뤥   横 ⠢.
     ᭮   ।  ७.  -
, 筮 ,     ᬠਢ 鸞.  
 ᪮쪮 ᯥ筠: ஦  ᬥ ᥧ , 
室 ।⠢  壠   -
⭮  । ப.  뢠 室 -
 ᮢ, ,  ᢮ ।,   থ ࣨ. 
 ࠩ ࠭祭 ६ ஬⪥     -
㤭,  ⭮ 祭 訡 뢮.  ஬
⮣,     饩   -
 ,     ࠬ ᮢ ࠡ   墠
  ᯥࠫ쭮 .
        ࢠ ,  ࠢ騬
 ࠢ騬  ६ ஢ﬨ.   -
 ⮡ࠦ  ﭨ 砥   । 
() ६,    ६  ࢠ -    ⤥
ਮ.   ᠭ ࠡ  諮 ⢨ 室
  ᪨ 冷  ࠢ騬   ६
஢ﬨ  ࢠ.
      ⢥ ࠪ⨪ 㥬 冷  -
 ᪨ ⥫.     
᮫ ᪮  ⥭ᨢ ࠧ .
        ᪨ ⥫  -
 ᮫ .   । ᪮ -
 ஢ 鸞 .
      ᮫  ^  ।   ࠧ
 ࠢ  ஢  y(i)   ஢,  ਭ  
ࠢ y(0): ^  = y(i) - y(0).
      ᮫   ^  ।⠢ ᮡ ࠧ
 ࠢ ஢ y(i)   ।騬    ஢
y(i-1): ^  = y(i) - y(i-1).
      砥,     ࠢ ਭ  -
 鸞  ,    ᭠ :  㬬
楯 ᮫ ⮢ ࠢ  筮  ᭮.  
ࠧ, ^ n = S(^ ). ஬ ⮣,   ந쭮 롮-
  ࠢ ࠧ  ᫥騬  ।騬 -
묨 ᮫묨  ⠬   ᮮ⢥騩 楯 -
 : ^ i = ^ i - ^ i-1.
     㣨 १砩    ⥫   
⥬ ,  騩 ࠪਧ ⥭ᨢ -
 ஢ 鸞.
      ⥬    ।  ।⢮   
ࠢ ஢ y(i)  ஢,  ਭ   ࠢ-
:   = y(i) / y(0).
      ⥬    ,  ࠧ ᫥騩 -
  ।騩:   = y(i) / y(i-1).
            樥,  ⠪  
業. ⭮襭 ᫥饣 ᭮ ⥬    -
饬  楯 ⥬ :   i =  i /  i-1. ᫨
  ࠢ ਭ  ஢ 鸞 , ந-
 楯 ⥬  ࠢ 筮 ᭮ ⥥ -
: ( ) =  n.
       -   ᪨ ⥫, ᯮ-
㥬  ᫥ ᪮  鸞.    ࠪਧ
   ⭮⥫ 稭.
      ⥬  ।    -
᭮ ᮫⭮     ஢,  ਭ  ⢥
 ࠢ:   = ^  / y(0).
      ⥬   ᫨,  ࠧ 楯 -
᮫   ஢ 鸞 ,  㯠騩    -
⢥  ࠢ  । 楯 .
       ⥬ ,  ⥬    ⮫쪮 
樥,    業.  ⮣,  ⥬ -
    ᭥ :  (%) =  (%)
- 100%   =  - 1.
      ࠪ⨪ ᪮ 鸞   ⠪
⥫,   ᮫⭮  祭  業 .
 뢠  ⥫ ᪮  ⥭ᨢ, -
,  ᮫⭠ 稭 뢠  1% . -
⭮ 祭  業        
稭,   砥 .
              ^      y(i-1)
     % =   = 
             (%)    100
      ᪨ ᫥ ਬ  㣨 -
᪨ ⥫,   ⭮, ⥬ 騢 ( = ^  /
y(0) ).   ᢮ ᮢ ࠡ   ᯮ짮  -
.
      祭   ࠪ⨪ ᪮ 鸞
ᯮ । 稭.   ⮬ । ஢ -
,  ⠪ ᪨ ⥫.
     । ஭᪠,   ࠪ, ⨯
஢,   -ࠧ  ࠧ ᪨ -
.
     )   ࢠ쭮  鸞   ࠢ騬 ஢ﬨ 
६ _   Sy(i)
        y = 
              n
     )   ࢠ쭮  鸞   ࠧ騬 ஢ﬨ 
६ _   Sy(i)*t(i)
        y = 
              St(i)
     )   ⭮ 鸞  ࠧ騬 ஢ﬨ  -
      _
     _   Sy(i)*t(i)
     y = 
           St(i)
     )  ⭮ 鸞  ࠢ騬 ஢ﬨ   -
 _   0.5y1 + y2 + ... + y(n-1) + 0.5y(n)
     y = 
                       n - 1
     । ᮫  鸞  ।⠢  -
 饭 ࠪ⨪ 楯 ᮫ ⮢.  -
᫨   ࠧ묨 ᯮᮡ:
     _   S(^ )   y(n) - y(1)   ^n
     ^ =  =  = 
           m         n - 1      n-1
      m - ᫮ 楯 ᮫ ⮢,   n -  ᫮
஢ ᪮ 鸞.
     । ⥬  ࠪਧ । ⥭ᨢ -
 ஢ ᪮ 鸞.   ⠪  ।
ࠧ묨 ﬨ, ᯮ 裡  ⥫ﬨ -
᪨ 冷:
    mĿ  n-1Ŀ  n-1Ŀ
  = (1)*(2)*...*(n) = Ŀ y(n) / y(1) = Ŀ n
                                                 
     뢠,  ⥬    易,  ।-
 ⥬   ᫨  㫥
     
   =  - 1, ᫨  ⥫ ⥭ᨢ ।⠢ 
 樥⮢.
     室 ⬥, । 稭  ⮫-
  楯 ᪨ ⥫ 冷 .
     १砩  ᯥ⮬  ᪨ 冷 -
  ᭮ ⥭樨 ᪮ 鸞. -
, 筮,  ᯮ짮  㠫 ,  -
᪨ ⮤. 祭  뢠 ⮤ ᪮ ।. -
  쥧 ᫥ 室 ਬ ⮤ -
᪮ ࠢ.
     ᪮ ࠢ  鸞    -
 ⥬   ७,    ।⠢ ஢
᪮ 鸞   㭪樨  ६ yt = f(t).
      ० ᥣ 室  ஢ ⥧  ⢮-
 ᭮ ⥭樨.  砥   -
 ⠡,  ⮬ ஢ 鸞    -
,     । .
      ⢮ ᯮᮡ  ஢ન ⥧  -
 ᭮ ⥭樨,  ⭮,  ⮤ ࠧ ஢-
 鸞    ᪮쪮 㯯   ᫥饩  ஢મ
㫥 ⥧   砩  ࠧ稩  ।,  ਩
-, ⮤  -.   ᢮  ᫥ 
 㪮⢮ 䠧 ਥ  ࠧ⥩
  .
      ⠯      ᭮ 䠧⭮ 
 ।  楯 ᮫ ⮢. ᫥-
⥫쭮    뢠 䠧.  ᪮
祭  ।  㫥
               2n - 7 
           h -   - 0.5
                 3    
      t = 
              
                16n - 29
               
                  90
      n  - ᫮ ஢ 鸞,  h - ᫮ 䠧,  祬 
।  ⢠ ࢠ  ᫥ 䠧  뢠-
.
     ᫨ 䠪᪮ 祭   ॢ蠥  ᪮
(㪠  ⠡),  ஢ 鸞   ࠧ -
砩 ᫥⥫쭮,   ᫥⥫쭮,  ⥭. 
⨢ 砥 室 ஢ ⢨ ७.
      ⢮ ᯮᮡ । ⨯  ࠢ,
 ⪮  ⮡ࠦ饣 ᭮ ⥭.   -
쭮  ᪮ ⮤,   ᯮ짮  ⥬-
 ,  ,     ࠧ⥩.    
ॠ쭮 ࠪ⨪ ⥫    ᮣ 
᭮묨 ਧ  ⠫  㭪権.    ᫮ 롮
⭮ ⥬᪮ 㭪樨  ᪮ ࠢ-
.
      ᮢ६ ᮭ ஢ 
⢨ ॡ  鸞  㭪権,  ⮡  । 
  ᭮  .  ᢮ ᫥ 
 ஢ ⥫ 㭪,  ⠪  -
, ன  쥩 ⥯.   ⥫쭮 롮 -
 ⨬쭮  ࠢ    㪮⢮ ਥ
쭮 㬬 ⪫ ࠢ ஢  䠪-
.
     ᪮ ࠢ ⢫  ᭮ ⮤
᪮ ࠢ,      
㭪樨 ⮢ ⪫ ࠢ ஢  䠪᪨
।⢮ ଠ쭮 ⥬ ࠢ.
      । ࠬ஢ 㭪権      ७
 ᯮ짮 ᯮᮡ   ᫮ 砫.  
᭮  祭     ६  ⠪
ࠧ, ⮡ St 뫠 ࠢ 0.  ⮬     -
 ᫮ ஢ (ਬ,  22,   㥬  -
) 浪    孥    鸞  ( ।)
 ᫠ -1,  -3, -5  ..,    -
 1, 3, ...
     ⮡ ⥬ ।⠢ ७  㭪, । 
⠭⭮   ⨬  祭  ६ (t @ N) 
। ᯮ짮 ᯮᮡ   ࠬ஢  ࠢ,
祬-  ᠭ  ᬮ७  祡.  -
 ।⠢  ६    㭪樨  -
ࠫ쭮 ६,  ⥬ ⠢  㭪  ࠢ
 ⢨  ࠬ஢.  ⭮,  -
  冷 t = -23 + 2 * n,  1 <= n <= 22, n @ N.
     ଠ쭠 ⥬ ࠢ  ⮬ 쭮   ࠧ-
蠥   ᯮᮡ ।⥫.   , 
  ⥫ ६  ᫮ 砫   ࠢ
 ⮫쪮 St,   㬬 ⥫ ६  ந쭮 -
⭮ ⥯.
      ⮬  ࠬ ⥬᪨ 㭪権 । 
㫠.                     _
     )   㭪樨  y = a0 + a1 * t:
          Sy         St*y      t
     a0 =  ;  a1 =  .
          n          St^2
                                   _          t
     )  ⥫쭮 㭪樨  y = a0 * a1 :
           Slg(y)       St*lg(y)    t
                 
     a0 =    n   ; a1 =  St^2
          10            10            _                       2
     )  ࠡ ண 浪  y = a0 + a1 * t + a2 * t:
          St^4 * Sy - St^2 * St^2*y    t
     a0 =  ;
            n * St^4 - (ST^2)^2

          St*y         n * St^2*y - St^2 * Sy
     a1 =  ;  a2 =  .
          St^2          n * St^4 - (St^2)^2
     )   쥩 ⥯
     _                       2        3
     y = a0 + a1 * t + a2 * t + a3 * t :
      t
          St^4 * Sy - St^2 * St^2*y
     a0 =  ;
             n * St^4 - (ST^2)^2

          St^6 * St*y - St^4 * St^3*y
     a1 =  ;
            St^2 * St^6 - (St^4)^2

          n * St^2*y - St^2 * Sy
     a2 =  ;
           n * St^4 - (St^2)^2

          St^2 * St^3*y - St^4 * St*y
     a3 =  .
            St^2 * St^6 - (St^4)^2
     롮  ⨬쭮 㭪樨 ⢫  ᭮-
  쭮 㬬 ⮢ ⪫ -
 ஢  ⥮᪨:
                       n  _      2
                   S = S (y - y )   min
       ୠ⨢ ਠ⮢  ࠢ ७ 롨-
 , ஬ ᮮ⢥ 쭮 祭,.. -
਩  ⮢ ⪫.
      ᫥ ⮣ 室  ⢥न 뢮  ਣ-
 ࠭ 㭪樨   ⥬᪮ ⮡ࠦ ᭮-
 ⥭樨.      ᯥᨮ -
.
      ਠ ᪮ 鸞  ࠧ   -
: ਠ ᫥⢨ ⥭樨  砩 ਠ
( V   = V     + V ).  ਠ ।  㫥
       f(t)    e
      n      _ 2     _
V  =  S (y - y),  y - । ஢ 鸞 .
 e   t=1  t
     砩 ਠ ( ਠ  ⥭樨, 맢-
 砩묨 ⥫⢠)  ⠪ ࠧ:
      n      _  2     _
V  =  S (y - y ),  y - ⥮᪨ ஢ 鸞, 祭
 e   t=1  t   t        t
 ⥬᪮  ७.
     ⥯ ᢮  ।  ᮮ⢥ ᯥᨩ
। ᫥騬 ࠧ:
     1) ᫮ ⥯ ᢮  ᯥᨨ ᫥⢨ ⥭-
樨  1  ᫠ ࠬ஢ ࠢ ᣫ;
     2) ᫮ ⥯  ᢮   砩  ᯥᨨ ࠢ
ࠧ ᫠ ஢ 鸞   ᫠ ࠬ஢ ࠢ-
 ᣫ;
     3) ᫮ ⥯ ᢮   饩 ᯥᨨ  1 
᫠ ஢ 鸞 .
      । ᯥᨨ 室 ਠ ।-
  ࠧ  ᮮ⢥  ⥯ ᢮.
     ᫥ । ᯥᨩ   ᪮ -
祭 F-   㫥
          2
         &
          f(t)
     F = 
           2
          &
           
     祭 ⭠ 稭 ࠢ ⥬  ⠡-
 祭, ।  ⮬ ⥯ ᢮  
  ᯥᨩ. ᫨ 믮 ࠢ⢮ F > F@  (F@ -
᪮ 祭   ஢ 稬 @),  -
㥬 ࠢ 筮 筮 ⮡ࠦ  ᭮ ⥭-
.
              3. ஥ ࢠ 冷.
     ஬ ᨢ ଠ樨  ⮣  থ ᨨ
ࠡ뢠 ᫮,   ,  , ᫥. ஬ ⮣,
 ࠭祭묨 ﬨ 㯠  ଠ樨,   
    , ⠭   ࣠.
⮬  襫  뢮,    ⨬    ᫥饣
 㤥 ᯮ짮 । ஭᪨  .
     祢,  室 ୠ⨢ ਠ - ᯮ짮-
   ⭮ 鸞, ନ஢  ⮣ -
   ᫥  ࣮   (  쭮  -
  ᪮ ࠪ⨪).  ᠬ , ⮫쪮 ।-
   砩 ⪫, 騥  
⭮ 砥.  ஢    
ਢ   ᪠  ॠ쭮     ᮢ 
६.
      室  ।⠢ ᮡ   -
  ࠢ騬  ६ ஢ﬨ.  䨭ᮢ-
 㬥 ।  ﭨ  । 
६ -    襭 থ ࣮.  ⮬  
 묨.  ஬ ⮣, থ ᨨ ஢ 
 ,     ᮡ ᢥ   ࣠ 뫮 ࠪ-
᪨ . ⥫쭮, ஢    ࠢ-
騬  ६.  । ⮤᪮ த 冷
뢠 室 ᯮ짮  ᮮ⢥騥  -
᪨ ⮤  ࠡ⪨,   ⭮,  ਬ ᮮ⢥-
饩  । ஭᪮.
      ନ஢ 冷 । ⥫ 諮
⮫  冷 㤭⥩.  ⭮, ⢮ ᢥ-
   ஢  ਢ⨧樮 祪  01.12.1992 (
 ⠢ 1=6800 .)  11.01.93 ( 42=5729  .).
 祭 室 ।   訫 ਡ-
  ௮樨  ᭮ । 楯 ᮫⭮ -
.
     ।  ᮫  ।  -
筮   㫥        y(n) - y(1)
                         ^  =  .
                                   n - 1
                                              y1 - y42
       砥  ਭ   ^  =  =
                                                31+11-1
   5729 - 6800       5
=  = -26 .
       41           41
       ந      1992 .
 ॡ ।  । ஭:
                                              
                         1 + 31   2 * 1 + ^  * 30
     ( 1992 .) =  =  =
                             2               2
                5                        27
  2 * 6800 - 26 * 30     13600 - 780 -  - 3
=              41       =                41     = 6408
       
            2                         2
      ࠧ ᫨ । ஭ 
  ﭢ 1993 .:
                                                
                         32 + 42   2 * 42 - ^  * 10
 (1-11 ﭢ 1993 .) =  =  =
                             2               2
                5                         9
  2 * 5729 + 26 * 10     11458 + 261 + 
=              41       =                41  = 5860
       
            2                      2
      । । ஭᪨    ,
ᯮ   ⮤  ᫥   ⭮
   ࠢ騬  ६ ஢ﬨ.
         ⮤᪠ ஡: -
室 䨪஢  ࠭  .   ⢥ ⠪
"㡥"  訫 ᯮ짮  ᫠  .-
 ⪮  ६ न  砥,  ᫨ ࣨ 1-
 ஢ (    ଠ  ⮣ -
থ ᨨ   ᫮), 諮 ᭮ ਡ  -
樨  ᭮ । ᮫⭮ .
      t(i) - ᫥  ।饣 ,  -
ன  ,  t(i+k) - ࢮ ᫮ ᫥饣 -
,  ண  १ ࣮,  i, i+k - 浪-
     ஬     ਢ⨧-
樮 祪, ࠪਧ饬 ⢥     -
 ।, i1 - 浪  1- ᫠ ᫥饣
  ⮬ .  y(i), y(i+k) - ᮮ⢥騥 -
 , k - ஬⮪  ⠬ t(i)  t(i+k).
      ⮬ 砥  । ⥮᪮ 祭 -
, ᮮ⢥饣 ࢮ  ᫥饣 ,  -
 । ᮫⭮ .
         y(i+k) - y(k)                   
     ^ =   ;  y(i1) = y(i) + ^ * (i1-i)
               k
     믮 ⠪ த ᫥  ⠡.

                                            1.
        ௮ ᮢ  1- ᫠ .
 Ŀ
 N  t(i1) t(i) t(i+ky(i) y(i+k  k    ^   i1-iy(i1)
 Ĵ
     A      1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8  
 Ĵ
 101.11.9226.1003.115300 4490   8  -101   6  4692 
 201.03.9326.0202.034650 4370   4   -70   3  4440 
 301.05.9330.0405.054225 4120   5   -21   1  4204 
 401.08.9330.0702.089550 9580   3   10    2  9570 
 501.09.9325.0802.099970 9990   8   2.5   7  9988 
 601.01.9428.1206.012111023770  9   296   4  22292
 701.05.9429.0403.054146939868  4  -400   2  40669
 801.07.9429.0614.075163643309  15 -555   2  50526
 
       ᯮ㥬  㫮    ।  ।
஭᪮  ⭮  鸞   ࠧ騬 
६ ஢ﬨ         _
                 _   S (y(i) * t(i))
                 y =  ,
                         S t(i)
⮡ ନ஢ ࢠ ᪨ ,  ஬ -
   ।⠢    ஬⪨.   㤥
⢫  ᭮ ᪨ ⠡.
                                                     2.
     । । ஭᪮  ⭮ -
 鸞     1992 .
      Ŀ
                           _             _       
      N            y(i)    t(i)  y(i)*t(i
      Ĵ
                   1       2       3       4    
      Ĵ
      102.10.1992  9000     -       -       -    
      205.10.1992  8816    8908     3     26724  
      306.10.1992  6600    7708     1     7708   
      409.10.1992  8192    7396     3     22188  
      513.10.1992  7000    7596     4     30384  
      620.10.1992  6500    6750     7     47250  
      726.10.1992  5300    5900     6     35400  
      801.11.1992  4692    4996     6     29978  
      Ĵ
         ⮣      -       -       30    199632 
      
                   _          199632
                   y(10.92) =  = 6654.4
                                30
      ⠫  । ஭᪨ -
ᮢ   ਢ⨧樮 祪 ਢ  ਫ.
      १ ⠪ த ᫥ 砥   -
 । ஭᪨     ਢ⨧-
樮 祪.
                                              3.
      ᮢ   ਢ⨧樮 祪  -
 1992 -  1994 , .
            Ŀ
            N                  থ  
                       Ĵ
            .                ࠳࠳
            Ĵ
                                1      2   
            Ĵ
             1 1992 .  353.6  6654.4
             2 1992 .   429.9  5723.9
             3 1992 .  409.3  6408.9
             4ﭢ 1993 .   478.6  5470.9
             5䥢ࠫ 1993 .  572.6  4787.5
             6 1993 .     666.0  4294.6
             7५ 1993 .   726.9  4218.8
             8 1993 .      912.7  4920.7
             9 1993 .    1081.7  8514.0
            10 1993 .    1023.7  9293.3
            11 1993 .   986.1  9658.2
            12ᥭ 1993 .1077.7 10619.8
            13 1993 . 1187.2 11885.0
            14 1993 .  1196.4 25803.3
            15 1993 . 1240.9 23192.2
            16ﭢ 1994 .  1416.9 23442.9
            17䥢ࠫ 1994 . 1586.8 20901.3
            18 1994 .    1719.4 28672.6
            19५ 1994 .  1794.4 38434.8
            20 1994 .     1876.6 34388.5
            21 1994 .    1958.4 34751.9
            22 1994 .    2027.4 40735.3
            
     ᯮ㥬  ᪨ ⮤   樨  
ᮢ   ਢ⨧樮 祪  祭 ६.-
ந   ࠬ  ஢   䨭ᮢ
㬥⮢ (ᬮ .1  .2 ਫ 2).
       4. ࠢ⥫  ᮫ ⥫.
     ᯮ  㠫   ⠡   
 ᪨ ⮤,  ᤥ  뢮  ᭮-
 ୮,   砥  ᪨ -
. ᫨       ࠢ୮,  
ਢ⨧樮 祪  뢠  ⥫  . 
殮 ᫥ ⠫ 1992   ࢮ ⠫ 93
  뢠  ⨣  ५ 쭮 祭. -
 ⮣,  ࠧ      ਮ १  (
11885 .   1993 .  25803.3 .  ;  20901.3 
 䥢ࠫ 1993 .  38434.8  ५ ⮣  )  ᫥-
騥 ⪠   㬠.
      業 ᪮  ᮢ  ᯮ㥬 ⠪
 ᪮ ࠪ⨪  ᪮ 鸞, 
᮫ .
                                                     4.
 ᭮ ᪨ ⥫ ᪮  ᮢ -
   ਢ⨧樮 祪   1992 . -  1994 ., .\12
Ŀ
                                     ᮫         
N                           Ĵ
                                    楯     
.               Ĵ
                 ࠳࠳࠳࠳࠳࠳
Ĵ
         A          1      2      3      4      5      6   
Ĵ
 1 1992 . 353.6  6654.4   -      -      -      -   
 2 1992 .  429.0  5723.9  75.4  -930.5  75.4  -930.5
 3 1992 . 409.3  6408.0  55.7  -246.4 -19.7  684.1 
 4ﭢ 1993 .  478.6  5470.9 125.0 -1183.5  69.3  -937.1
 5䥢ࠫ 1993 . 572.6  4787.5 219.0 -1866.9  94.0  -683.4
 6 1993 .    666.0  4294.6 312.4 -2359.8  93.4  -492.9
 7५ 1993 .  726.9  4218.8 373.3 -2435.6  60.9  -75.8 
 8 1993 .     912.7  4920.7 559.1 -1733.7 185.8  701.9 
 9 1993 .    1081.7 8514.0 728.1  1859.6 169.0  3593.3
10 1993 .    1023.7 9293.3 670.1  2638.9 -58.0  779.3 
11 1993 .  986.1  9658.2 632.5  3003.8 -37.6  364.9 
12ᥭ 1993  1077.710619.8 724.1  3965.4  91.6  961.6 
13 1993 . 1187.211885.0 833.6  5230.6 109.5  1265.2
14 1993 .  1196.425803.3 842.8 19148.9  9.2  13918.3
15 1993 . 1240.923192.2 887.3 16537.8  44.5 -2611.1
16ﭢ 1994 .  1416.923442.9 1063.316788.5 176.0  250.7 
17䥢ࠫ 1994 . 1586.820901.3 1233.214246.9 169.9 -2541.6
18 1994 .    1719.428672.6 1365.822018.2 132.6  7771.3
19५ 1994 .  1794.438434.8 1440.831780.4  75.0  9762.2
20 1994 .     1876.634388.5 1523.027734.1  82.2 -4046.3
21 1994 .    1958.434751.9 1604.828097.5  81.8  363.4 
22 1994 .    2027.440735.3 1673.834080.9  69.0  5983.4

\*      ࠢ ਭ ஢  1992 . - -
 砫 ࣮  ஬  .
        ਢ  ⠡,   -
      뫨 ⥫묨   祭
ᬠਢ  ਮ.   ⮣, ⪮  ᬠਢ
⥭  㢥祭 :  ᮫  -
㪫 ,  ᪫祭 2 ਮ,  㬥-
蠫 (  1992 .   - 1993 .).  -
訬  ᮫      1992 
(55.7 .), 訬 -   1994 . (    -
㥬 ਮ)  ⠢ 1673.8 .
       ᠥ      ᮫ ⮢
 ਢ⨧樮 祪,    ⨭   뫠 ⮫
।.   1993 .  ᮫  뫨
⥫묨,  祬 襥 祭  뫮 ⨣ 
५ 1993 . (-2435.6 .).   쭥襬  (  1993 .)
 뫨 ⥫묨,   襥 祭 (34080.9 .)
⮣ ⥫ 뫮 ⬥祭   1994 . (᫥ 
㥬 ਮ).
      楯 ᮫ ⮢    -
,   䨭ᮢ 㬥   쭮 ⠡쭮
᪮.  ਦ (  1992 .,  1993 .  -
 1993 .) 뫨 䨪஢  ⥫ ᮫ -
.  訬 祭 ⮣  ᪮  ⥫
뫮    1993 .  (-58 .),  訬 -    1993 .
(185.8 .).
     祭  ਢ⨧樮 祪 﫨  ࠧ-
  ࠦ ⢮. 8 ࠧ  ⥫-
 ᮫ , 祬  ﭢ 1993 .  ५ 1993
. - 4 ࠧ . ᨬ쭮 祭 ⮣ ⥫ -
 ⨣    1993 . (13918 .),  쭮 - 
 1994 . (-4046.3 .).
          ᮡ:   ࠧ 楯
᮫     ਢ⨧樮 祪   뫨
६ ⥫묨.
     ।⥫   冷   ᮢ   
ਢ⨧樮 祪  ( ᭮ 祭  ஢
 ⥫ ᪮)  㫨஢ ।⥫-
 뢮.    㢥稢  ⠡쭮, 
 ਢ⨧樮 祪. ஬ ⮣,    ᫥
   থ     뢠 (ࠢ,
 쭮 让 ᪮,   ५ 1993 . ⨣ -
६쭮 祭 - 㬠 (4218.8 .).   쭥襬
᪮   ਢ⨧樮 祪 (楯 ᮫
) ⥫쭮  ॢ諠 ᪮    .
 ⮬   ᮯ஢ ⤥묨 ⪠⠬.
      饩 ࠪ⨪ 㥬 冷 ᯮ㥬-
 । ⥫ﬨ 冷 :  । ஢ 鸞
 ।  ᮫ ⮬.  砥  ᪨ 
।⠢ ᮡ ࢠ   ࠢ騬  -
 ஢ﬨ, ⮬   । ஭᪮ -
室 ᯮ짮 㫮 । 䬥᪮ -
⮩:
    _       S y    24722.3
    y($) =  =  = 1123.7
            22        22

    _          S y   362771.9
    y() =  =  = 16489.6
               22       22

     । ᮫   ।,  ࠧ 
 ᮫   ᫮ ⮢ (21):
    _        y22 - y1     1673.8
    ^ ($) =  =  = 79.7
                 21         21

    _           y22 - y1     34080.9
    ^ () =  =   = 1622.9
                   21          21
     ⥫쭮 ॢ襭 । ᮫ ⮬ -
 ਢ⨧樮 祪 筮 ⥫ ᪮-
 鸞    ᮮ⢥饩  ࠧ楩 
ᮢ ⮨⥩.
          5. ࠢ⥫  ⥭ᨢ.
       ᪨   ॡ ࠫ-
 ᯮ짮  ⥫ ᪮  ⥭ᨢ -
 ஢. , ᭮  ᯮ짮 ⥫
 ,  㤥  ஭, । -
ਥ騩 ࠪ.   ⮩ 裡  室 ᬮ
⥫ ⥭ᨢ, ० ᥣ ⥬   .
                                               5.
             ᮢ   ਢ⨧樮
                祪   1992 . -  1994 .\12
Ŀ
                                         , %         
N                   , .  Ĵ
                                    楯     
.               Ĵ
                 ࠳࠳࠳࠳࠳࠳
Ĵ
                   1      2      3      4      5      6   
Ĵ
 1 1992 . 353.6  6654.4   -      -      -      -   
 2 1992 .  429.0  5723.9 121.3   86.0  121.3   86.0 
 3 1992 . 409.3  6408.8 115.8   96.3   95.4  112.0 
 4ﭢ 1993 .  478.6  5470.9 135.4   82.2  116.9   85.4 
 5䥢ࠫ 1993 . 572.6  4787.5 161.9   71.9  119.6   87.5 
 6 1993 .    666.0  4294.6 188.3   64.6  116.3   89.7 
 7५ 1993 .  726.9  4218.8 205.6   63.4  109.1   98.2 
 8 1993 .     912.7  4920.7 258.1   73.9  125.6  116.6 
 9 1993 .    1081.7 8514.0 305.9  127.9  118.5  173.0 
10 1993 .    1023.7 9293.3 289.5  139.7   94.6  109.2 
11 1993 .  986.1  9658.2 278.9  145.1   96.3  104.0 
12ᥭ 1993  1077.710619.8 304.8  159.6  109.3  110.0 
13 1993 . 1187.211885.0 335.7  178.6  110.2  111.9 
14 1993 .  1196.425803.3 338.3  387.8  100.8  217.1 
15 1993 . 1240.923192.2 350.9  348.5  103.7   89.9 
16ﭢ 1994 .  1416.923442.9 400.7  352.3  114.2  101.1 
17䥢ࠫ 1994 . 1586.820901.3 448.8  314.1  112.0   89.2 
18 1994 .    1719.428672.6 486.3  430.9  108.4  137.2 
19५ 1994 .  1794.438434.8 507.5  577.6  104.4  134.0 
20 1994 .     1876.634388.5 530.7  516.8  104.6   89.5 
21 1994 .    1958.434751.9 553.8  522.2  104.4  101.1 
22 1994 .    2027.440735.3 573.4  612.2  103.6  117.2 

\*     ᬮ७  ⥬    ⢥-
 砭, ᪠   ⥫ ᪮.
⪮ ᫥ ⥭   㢥祭 ஢.   
㥬 ਮ    5.734 ࠧ,    ⠢-
 ᨬ  ⥬ .   ⥬ ,
 100%,  祭 ᬠਢ ਮ 䨪஢
 뫮.
       ⥫   ਢ⨧樮 祪 -
 ⨢ .   1993 . 
⥬  ⠢﫨   100%,  祬 訩 -
⥫ (63.4%)   䨪஢   ५ 1993 .    
  ⥬   ਢ⨧樮 祪, -
⠢訩 612.2%,  ॢᨫ  ⥫ ࢮ -
᪮ 鸞  38.8%.   뢠,    -
ࠧ  ⠡쭮,  ,    ⥬ ⥭ᨢ-
.  ࠧ, ਢ⨧樮 祪  ।⠢ ࠧ
 ⥩    ᯥ⨢  ,    ६ 
  室  ࢠ⨢ 権.
      ⥬   뢠,   -
 ࠪ᪨   ⠤ ᬠਢ ਮ.  
ਦ (  1992 .,    1993 .) 楯 ⥬
 ⨫  100%.   襩 ⥭ᨢ 
   1993 . ( = 125.6%),  襩 -   1993 
( = 94.6%).
      ⥬    ਢ⨧樮 祪  -
  ࠧ  ப ।. 襥 祭 -
 ⬥祭    1992 .  (85.4%), 襥 -  
1993 . (217.1%).  頥  ᥡ  १ ⪠ 楯-
 ⥬   217.1%    89.9%   1993 .,
 㦥 ⬥砫,  ਢ⨧樮 祪  뢠 쥧
 ᮢ ⮨.
      ।⠢   ᭮ ⥬ -
.   ,  ਢ  ⥫  ⠡.
                                               6.
            ᮢ   ਢ⨧樮
                祪   1992 . -  1994 .\12
Ŀ
                                        , %       
N                   , .  Ĵ
                                    楯     
.               Ĵ
                 ࠳࠳࠳࠳࠳࠳
Ĵ
                   1      2      3      4      5      6   
Ĵ
 1 1992 . 353.6  6654.4   -      -      -      -   
 2 1992 .  429.0  5723.9  21.3  -14.0   21.3  -14.0 
 3 1992 . 409.3  6408.8  15.8   -3.7   -4.6   12.0 
 4ﭢ 1993 .  478.6  5470.9  35.4  -17.8   16.9  -14.6 
 5䥢ࠫ 1993 . 572.6  4787.5  61.9  -28.1   19.6  -12.5 
 6 1993 .    666.0  4294.6  88.3  -35.4   16.3  -10.3 
 7५ 1993 .  726.9  4218.8 105.6  -36.6   9.1    -1.8 
 8 1993 .     912.7  4920.7 158.1  -26.1   25.6   16.6 
 9 1993 .    1081.7 8514.0 205.9   27.9   18.5   73.0 
10 1993 .    1023.7 9293.3 189.5   39.7   -5.4   9.2  
11 1993 .  986.1  9658.2 178.9   45.1   -3.7   4.0  
12ᥭ 1993  1077.710619.8 204.8   59.6   9.3    10.0 
13 1993 . 1187.211885.0 235.7   78.6   10.2   11.9 
14 1993 .  1196.425803.3 238.3  287.8   0.8   117.1 
15 1993 . 1240.923192.2 250.9  248.5   3.7   -10.1 
16ﭢ 1994 .  1416.923442.9 300.7  252.3   14.2   1.1  
17䥢ࠫ 1994 . 1586.820901.3 348.8  214.1   12.0  -10.8 
18 1994 .    1719.428672.6 386.3  330.9   8.4    37.2 
19५ 1994 .  1794.438434.8 407.5  477.6   4.4    34.0 
20 1994 .     1876.634388.5 430.7  416.8   4.6   -10.5 
21 1994 .    1958.434751.9 453.8  422.2   4.4    1.1  
22 1994 .    2027.440735.3 473.4  512.2   3.6    17.2 

\*     ⬥⨬  ᮡ ⥬  ᮢ -
   ਢ⨧樮 祪.  ᭮,   ᪨
 ⥬       ⭮ 砥 - 䥪⨢-
   ᬠਢ 䨭ᮢ 㬥. 
⥬  ।⠢ ᮡ  室,  -
 - 室   ਮ ६    1992 . (᫨,
筮,  䨭ᮢ 㬥  ⮣ 㯫).
     ࢠ⨢     ᯥ稢   
 ⠡ 室.  ਦ  ⮣  
஢ ௥  ⪨.   ⮦ ६ ᢥਡ뫥   
  権  ( ਡ   ࡨࠦ  ᯥ 
ᠬ)  뫮 ࠪ᪨ .
     ᥬ   - ਢ⨧樮 祪. 모  ந-
 楫 ﭨ,  뢠   樨  砫
⠯  横 .     ६   1993 .
  1993 .   ⥫쭮  㢥稫  ⮨  ᢮
䥫.  ﭭ  뢠 ப 
 ᯥ⮢,  㯫-த ਢ⨧樮
祪  থ.
      祬  稭 ⠪    ਢ⨧樮
祪  ⠡쭮    ?   ⬥,   
 ࠫ  ⮣ ࣮  ,   쥧 -
樨 ⢫ ஡ .    ᣫ -
 .     室 ࣮ ࠬ ⠪  -
 ⢮  뫨.  ஬ ⮣, ࠫ ᢮ ஫
( 祬 ஬!) ᯥ䨪 ਢ⨧樮 祪  業-
 㬠.     ।⢥   室 ਢ⨧-
樨, ଠ⨢    㣨  , 
祪 樮,  ⠪  㣨 䠪.   ९-
⥭  ਢ  ⠪ ࠪ  ᮢ ⮨-
 ਢ⨧樮 祪.
     । ⥯ । ⥫ ⥭ᨢ - ।-
 ⥬   .
              Ŀ
             y22       Ŀ
    ($) = 21 = 21 5.734 = 1.087,  108.7%
             \ y1       \

                 Ŀ
                y22       Ŀ
    () = 21 = 21 6.122 = 1.090,  109.0%
                \ y1       \
          
    ($) =  ($) - 100% = 108.7% - 100% = 8.7%
             
    () =  () - 100% = 109.0% - 100% = 9.0%
      ࠧ, । ⥬      -
 ᪮쪮 ,   ᮮ⢥騥  ⥫ 
ਢ⨧樮 祪.
     ᬮਬ      ᪨  ⥫ -
᮫⭮ 祭  業 .
                                                   7.
  ᮫⭮ 祭  業  ᮢ 
    ਢ⨧樮 祪   1992 . -  1994 .\17
Ŀ
N                   , .     ^ , .      , .      |%|, .   
          Ĵ
.               ࠳࠳࠳࠳࠳࠳࠳࠳
Ĵ
                   1      2      3      4      5      6      7      8   
Ĵ
 1 1992 . 353.6  6654.4   -      -      -      -      -     -    
 2 1992 .  429.0  5723.9  75.4  -930.5  21.3  -14.0  3.536  66.544
 3 1992 . 409.3  6408.0 -19.7  684.1   -4.6   12.0  4.290  57.239
 4ﭢ 1993 .  478.6  5470.9  69.3  -937.1  16.9  -14.6  4.093  64.080
 5䥢ࠫ 1993 . 572.6  4787.5  94.0  -683.4  19.6  -12.5  4.786  54.709
 6 1993 .    666.0  4294.6  93.4  -492.9  16.3  -10.3  5.726  47.875
 7५ 1993 .  726.9  4218.8  60.9  -75.8   9.1    -1.8  6.660  42.946
 8 1993 .     912.7  4920.7 185.8  701.9   25.6   16.6  7.269  42.188
 9 1993 .    1081.7 8514.0 169.0  3593.3  18.5   73.0  9.127  49.207
10 1993 .    1023.7 9293.3 -58.0  779.3   -5.4   9.2   10.817 85.140
11 1993 .  986.1  9658.2 -37.6  364.9   -3.7   4.0   10.237 92.933
12ᥭ 1993  1077.710619.8  91.6  961.6   9.3    10.0  9.861  96.582
13 1993 . 1187.211885.0 109.5  1265.2  10.2   11.9  10.777106.198
14 1993 .  1196.425803.3  9.2  13918.3  0.8   117.1  11.872118.850
15 1993 . 1240.923192.2  44.5 -2611.1  3.7   -10.1  11.964258.033
16ﭢ 1994 .  1416.923442.9 176.0  250.7   14.2   1.1   12.409231.922
17䥢ࠫ 1994 . 1586.820901.3 169.9 -2541.6  12.0  -10.8  14.169234.429
18 1994 .    1719.428672.6 132.6  7771.3  8.4    37.2  15.868209.013
19५ 1994 .  1794.438434.8  75.0  9762.2  4.4    34.0  17.194286.726
20 1994 .     1876.634388.5  82.2 -4046.3  4.6   -10.5  17.944384.348
21 1994 .    1958.434751.9  81.8  363.4   4.4    1.1   18.766343.885
22 1994 .    2027.440735.3  69.0  5983.4  3.6    17.2  19.584347.519

\*      ᪨ ⥫  । -
ࠪ 裡  ⥬   뢠騬  ᮫
⮬.   㢥祭 ஢  ᮫⭮  祭 
業  㢥稢.  ਢ  ⮬,  ⥬
, 뢠  묨  祭 ᮫묨 -
⠬, 㬥蠥.   ⭮, ᪨ ᮫ -
  , ⠢訩 75.4 , ᮯ஢ ⥬
  ࠧ 23.1%,    ६  襬 (81.8 .)
᮫⭮    1994 . ᮮ⢥⢮ ⥫쭮
訩 ⥬  (4.4%).
     6. । ᭮ ⥭権  ᮢ
         ⮨   ਢ⨧樮 祪.
     ० ᥣ 室 ।,    -
 ᪨  ᭮ ⥭.  ⮡ ᭨ ,
ᯮ㥬 䠧 ਥ  ਥ --
.
                                                  8.
     । ᫠ 䠧  ᫥   ࠧ-
⥩       ᪮     
 1992 . -  1994 .
        Ŀ
        N                        
                   ࠳⪫-  䠧  
        .                                
        Ĵ
                            1      2      3   
        Ĵ
         1 1992 .  353.6               
         2 1992 .   429.9    +          
         3 1992 .  409.3    -      1   
         4ﭢ 1993 .   478.6    +      2   
         5䥢ࠫ 1993 .  572.6    +          
         6 1993 .     666.0    +          
         7५ 1993 .   726.9    +          
         8 1993 .      912.7    +          
         9 1993 .    1081.7    +          
        10 1993 .    1023.7    -      3   
        11 1993 .   986.1    -          
        12ᥭ 1993 .1077.7    +          
        13 1993 . 1187.2    +          
        14 1993 .  1196.4    +          
        15 1993 . 1240.9    +          
        16ﭢ 1994 .  1416.9    +          
        17䥢ࠫ 1994 . 1586.8    +          
        18 1994 .    1719.4    +          
        19५ 1994 .  1794.4    +          
        20 1994 .     1876.6    +          
        21 1994 .    1958.4    +          
        22 1994 .    2027.4    +          
        
             2n - 7               44 - 7 
         h -   - 0.5    3 -   - 0.5
               3                    3    
    t =  =  = 4.66
                        
              16n - 29             16*22 - 29
                          
                90                   90
      ⠡ 祭  䠧⭮   室,
  5%- ஢ 稬  ⥮᪮ 祭 -
 ࠢ 1.96.  ஢ ᪮ 鸞   
 ࠧ 砩 ᫥⥫쭮, ᫥⥫쭮, 
⥭.
                                                  9.
     । ᫠ 䠧  ᫥   ࠧ-
⥩       ᪮     
 1992 . -  1994 .
        Ŀ
        N                        
                   ࠳⪫-  䠧  
        .                                
        Ĵ
                            1      2      3   
        Ĵ
         1 1992 .  6654.4              
         2 1992 .   5723.9   -          
         3 1992 .  6408.9   +      1   
         4ﭢ 1993 .   5470.9   -      2   
         5䥢ࠫ 1993 .  4787.5   -          
         6 1993 .     4294.6   -          
         7५ 1993 .   4218.8   -          
         8 1993 .      4920.7   +      3   
         9 1993 .     8514.0   +          
        10 1993 .     9293.3   +          
        11 1993 .   9658.2   +          
        12ᥭ 1993 .10619.8   +          
        13 1993 . 11885.0   +          
        14 1993 .  25803.3   +          
        15 1993 . 23192.2   -      4   
        16ﭢ 1994 .  23442.9   +      5   
        17䥢ࠫ 1994 . 20901.3   -      6   
        18 1994 .    28672.6   +      7   
        19५ 1994 .  38434.8   +          
        20 1994 .     34388.5   -      8   
        21 1994 .    34751.9   +          
        22 1994 .    40735.3   +          
        
             2n - 7               44 - 7 
         h -   - 0.5    8 -   - 0.5
               3                    3    
    t =  =  = 2.02
                        
              16n - 29             16*22 - 29
                          
                90                   90
     ᪮ 祭  ࠢ 1.96.  ⥫-
, ஢  ᪮  鸞   ਢ⨧樮  祪
 ⥭.  砩  ࠦ ᨫ쭥,
  拉   .
     ⠥  ७  ᭮ ⮤ ᪮
ࠢ. ⢥ , ஢ ࠭, -
 ⪮ । ⨯ ⥬᪨ 㭪権, ࠪਧ-
 ⢥ ᭮ ⥭  ᪨ 冷 -
ᮢ   ਢ⨧樮 祪.    ।⠢-
 祢,  㫮䬨᪠ 㭪 
_                               _              1
y  = a0 + a1 * lg t  ࡮ y  = a0 + a1 * -    -
 t                               t             t
 ஫ ⠪ 㭪権.
     ⮬  ⠫  ந    ᭮ 
        _                                      _          t
㭪樨 y = a0 + a1 * t, ⥫쭮 㭪樨 y = a0 * a1,
         t                                      t
                     _                       2
筮 㭪樨 y = a0 + a1 * t + a2 * t,  ⠪ 㡨-
                      t
                _                       2        3
᪮ ࠡ   y = a0 + a1 * t + 2 * t + a3 * t.   롮
                 t
 ⭮ 㭪樨  ᫥饬  ᯮ -
਩ 쭮 ⠭⨧ 訡 பᨬ樨.
      । ࠬ஢ ⥬᪨ 㭪権 ᯮ-
 ᯮᮡ  ६  ᫮ . 11-  12-
஢ 鸞 (業ࠫ) ᢠ 祭 ६ -1 
1. 祭 ६  ⠫ 童 鸞 । 
 ४७⭮  䬥᪮ ணᨨ:  -
⠥  ਡ .
\12                                                 10.
       । ࠬ஢   ⥫쭮 㭪権,
            ७ ᪮ 鸞  .
Ŀ
N              t      t^2      y     t * y   lg(y)  t*lg(y) 
Ĵ
         A          1       2       3       4       5       6    
Ĵ
1  1992 .  -21     441    353.6  -7425.6  2.5485 -53.519 
2  1992 .   -19     361    429.0  -8151.0  2.6325 -50.017 
3  1992 .  -17     289    409.3  -6958.1  2.6120 -44.405 
4 ﭢ 1993 .   -15     225    478.6  -7179.0  2.6800 -40.200 
5 䥢ࠫ 1993 .  -13     169    572.6  -7443.8  2.7579 -35.852 
6  1993 .     -11     121    666.0  -7326.0  2.8235 -31.058 
7 ५ 1993 .   -9       81    726.9  -6542.1  2.8615 -25.753 
8  1993 .      -7       49    912.7  -6388.9  2.9603 -20.722 
9  1993 .     -5       25    1081.7 -5408.5  3.0341 -15.171 
10 1993 .     -3       9     1023.7 -3071.1  3.0102 -9.0305 
11 1993 .   -1       1     986.1   -986.1  2.9939 -2.9939 
12ᥭ 1993    1       1     1077.7  1077.7  3.0325 3.03250 
13 1993 .   3       9     1187.2  3561.6  3.0745 9.22357 
14 1993 .    5       25    1196.4  5982.0  3.0779 15.3894 
15 1993 .   7       49    1240.9  8686.3  3.0937 21.6562 
16ﭢ 1994 .    9       81    1416.9 12752.1  3.1513 28.3621 
17䥢ࠫ 1994 .  11      121    1586.8 17454.8  3.2005 35.2057 
18 1994 .     13      169    1719.4 22352.2  3.2354 42.0599 
19५ 1994 .   15      225    1794.4 26916.0  3.2539 48.8088 
20 1994 .      17      289    1876.6 31902.2  3.2734 55.6473 
21 1994 .     19      361    1958.4 37209.6  3.2919 62.5461 
22 1994 .     21      441    2027.4 42575.4  3.3069 69.4457 
Ĵ
  ⮣             0      3542   24722.3143589.7 65.906 62.6567 

\*      ⮣  ⠡ 8 ⠥ ࠬ ࠢ.
       㭪樨:
          Sy   24722.3
     a0 =  =  = 1123.74;
          22     22

          St*y   143589.7
     a1 =  =  = 40.54
          St^2     3542
                     _
      ࠧ,  y = 1123.74 + 40.54 * t
                      t
      ⥫쭮 㭪樨:
           Slg(y)     65.906
                
     a0 =   22    =     22   = 990.24
          10        10

            St*lg(y)    62.6567
                
     a1 =    St^2   =    3542  = 1.04
          10          10
                     _                t
      ࠧ,  y = 990.24 * 1.04
                      t
                                                 11.
 । ࠬ஢ ࠡ ண  쥣 浪,
       ७ ᪮ 鸞  .\17
Ŀ
 N      t        t^2       t^3       t^4       t^6        y        t*y     t^2*y      t^3*y  
Ĵ
        1         2         3         4         5         6         7         8         9    
Ĵ
 1     -21       441     -9261     194481   85766121    353.6   -7425.6  155937.6  -3274689.6
 2     -19       361     -6859     130321   47045881     429     -8151    154869    -2942511 
 3     -17       289     -4913      83521   24137569    409.3   -6958.1  118287.7  -2010890.9
 4     -15       225     -3375      50625   11390625    478.6    -7179    107685    -1615275 
 5     -13       169     -2197      28561    4826809    572.6   -7443.8   96769.4  -1258002.2
 6     -11       121     -1331      14641    1771561     666     -7326     80586     -886446 
 7     -9        81      -729       6561     531441     726.9   -6542.1   58878.9   -529910.1
 8     -7        49      -343       2401     117649     912.7   -6388.9   44722.3   -313056.1
 9     -5        25      -125        625      15625    1081.7   -5408.5   27042.5   -135212.5
 10    -3         9       -27        81        729     1023.7   -3071.1   9213.3    -27639.9 
 11    -1         1       -1          1         1       986.1    -986.1    986.1     -986.1  
 12     1         1        1          1         1      1077.7    1077.7   1077.7     1077.7  
 13     3         9       27         81        729     1187.2    3561.6   10684.8    32054.4 
 14     5        25       125        625      15625    1196.4     5982     29910     149550  
 15     7        49       343       2401     117649    1240.9    8686.3   60804.1   425628.7 
 16     9        81       729       6561     531441    1416.9   12752.1  114768.9   1032920.1
 17    11        121     1331       14641    1771561   1586.8   17454.8  192002.8   2112030.8
 18    13        169     2197       28561    4826809   1719.4   22352.2  290578.6   3777521.8
 19    15        225     3375       50625   11390625   1794.4    26916    403740     6056100 
 20    17        289     4913       83521   24137569   1876.6   31902.2  542337.4   9219735.8
 21    19        361     6859      130321   47045881   1958.4   37209.6  706982.4  13432665.6
 22    21        441     9261      194481   85766121   2027.4   42575.4  894083.4  18775751.4
Ĵ
 S      0       3542       0       1023638  351208022  24722.3  143589.7 4101947.9 42020416.9

\*      ⮣  ⠡ 9 ⠥ ࠬ ࠢ.
      ࠡ ண 浪:
          St^4 * Sy - St^2 * St^2*y
     a0 =  =
             22 St^4 - (ST^2)^2

        1023638 * 24722.3 - 3542 * 4101947.9
     =  = 1080.54
                22 * 1023638 - 3542^2

          St*y   143589.7
     a1 =  =  = 40.54
          St^2     3542

          22 St^2*y - St^2 * Sy
     a2 =  =
           22 St^4 - (St^2)^2

        22 * 4101947.9 - 3542 * 24722.3
     =   = 0.27
            22 * 1023638 - 3542 ^ 2
                     _                                 2
      ࠧ,  y = 1080.54 + 40.54 * t + 0.27 * t
                      t
      ࠡ 쥣 浪:
          St^4 * Sy - St^2 * St^2*y
     a0 =  =
             22 St^4 - (ST^2)^2

        1023638 * 24722.3 - 3542 * 4101947.9
     =  = 1080.54
                22 * 1023638 - 3542^2

          St^6 * St*y - St^4 * St^3*y
     a1 =  =
            St^2 * St^6 - (St^4)^2

       351208022 * 143589.7 - 1023638 * 42020416.9
     =  = 37.81
              3542 * 351208022 - 1023638^2

          22 St^2*y - St^2 * Sy
     a2 =  =
           22 St^4 - (St^2)^2

        22 * 4101947.9 - 3542 * 24722.3
     =   = 0.27
            22 * 1023638 - 3542 ^ 2

          St^2 * St^3*y - St^4 * St*y
     a3 =  =
            St^2 * St^6 - (St^4)^2

       3542 * 42020416.9 - 1023638 * 143589.7
     =  = 0.01
           3542 * 351208022 - 1023638^2
                _                                 2          3
 ࠧ,  y = 1080.54 + 37.81 * t + 0.27 * t + 0.01 * t
                 t
     ⠪,   ७ 鸞     -
६ ⥬᪨ 㭪  ᨭ⥧஢   ७
:
       _
   1)  y = 1123.74 + 40.54 * t
        t
       _                t
   2)  y = 990.24 * 1.04
        t
       _                                 2
   3)  y = 1080.54 + 40.54 * t + 0.27 * t
        t
       _                                 2          3
   4)  y = 1080.54 + 37.81 * t + 0.27 * t + 0.01 * t
        t
     ⮡  ,       -
  ⭮, 室 ࠢ  㬬 ⮢ ⪫-
 ⥮᪨ ஢  ᪨.
\17                                                                                12.
              । 㬬 ⮢ ⪫ ⥮᪨ ஢  ᪨ 
              ७ ᪮ 鸞     1992 . -  1994 .
Ŀ
                                       ᪨ ஢         ⪫ ⥮᪨ 
N                                       㭪権          ஢  䠪᪨  㭪権 
              t    Ĵ
.                           y   - ࠡ볯ࠡ볫- ࠡ볯ࠡ
                                          ⥫쭮2 -3 -         ⥫쭮2 -3 -
Ĵ
         A           1       2      3       4       5        6       7       8       9       10  
Ĵ
1  1992 .   -21    353.6  272.4  434.5506 348.27  312.99 6593.44 6552.99728.4089 1649.172
2  1992 .    -19     429   353.48 470.0099 407.75  391.03 5703.2701681.813451.56251441.721
3  1992 .   -17    409.3  434.56 508.3627 469.39  466.67 638.06769813.4233610.8083291.317
4 ﭢ 1993 .    -15    478.6  515.64 549.8451 533.19  540.39 1371.9625075.8672980.0683818.004
5 䥢ࠫ 1993 .   -13    572.6  596.72 594.7125 599.15  612.67 581.7744488.9619704.90251605.605
6  1993 .      -11     666   677.8  643.2410 667.27  683.99  139.24 517.9711 1.6129 323.6401
7 ५ 1993 .    -9     726.9  758.88 695.7295 737.55  754.83 1022.720971.6008113.4225780.0849
8  1993 .       -7     912.7  839.96 752.5010 809.99  825.67 5291.10825663.7110549.347574.221
9  1993 .      -5    1081.7  921.04 813.9051 884.59  896.99 25811.6471714.1138852.3534117.78
10 1993 .      -3    1023.7 1002.12 880.3198 961.35  969.27 465.696420557.893887.5232962.625
11 1993 .    -1     986.1  1083.2 952.15381040.27 1042.99 9428.41 1152.3412934.3893236.472
12ᥭ 1993     1    1077.7 1164.28 1029.8501121.35 1118.63 7496.0962289.6611905.3231675.265
13 1993 .    3    1187.2 1245.36 1113.8851204.59 1196.67 3382.5865375.041302.412189.6809 
14 1993 .     5    1196.4 1326.44 1204.7781289.99 1277.59 16910.4070.197098759.0886591.816
15 1993 .    7    1240.9 1407.52 1303.0881377.55 1361.87 27762.223867.38318673.2214633.74
16ﭢ 1994 .     9    1416.9  1488.6 1409.4201467.27 1449.99 5140.89 55.946072537.1371094.948
17䥢ࠫ 1994 .   11    1586.8 1569.68 1524.4291559.15 1542.43 293.09443890.144764.52251968.697
18 1994 .      13    1719.4 1650.76 1648.8221653.19 1639.67 4711.4504981.1994383.7646356.873
19५ 1994 .    15    1794.4 1731.84 1783.3661749.39 1742.19 3913.754121.74262025.9002725.884
20 1994 .       17    1876.6 1812.92 1928.8891847.75 1850.47 4055.1422734.138832.3225682.7769
21 1994 .      19    1958.4   1894  2086.2861948.27 1964.99 4147.36 16354.91102.616943.4281 
22 1994 .      21    2027.4 1975.08 2256.5272050.95 2086.23 2737.38252499.32554.60253460.969
Ĵ
  ⮣              0    24722.324722.2824584.6724728.2224728.22137597.7236430.4104955.3100124.7

\*      ࠢ 祭 祭 㬬  ⮢ ⪫-
 ⥮᪨ ஢  ᪨ ᫥,   -
 쭮 ।⥭ ᫥  ⤠ ७ -

   _                                 2          3
   y = 1080.54 + 37.81 * t + 0.27 * t + 0.01 * t
    t
          ࠬ஢  ⥬᪨  ࠢ 
짮 ᯮᮡ     ᫮ . ⮡ ।-
⠢ ७  㭪, ।  ⠭⭮ 
⨬ 祭 (1, 2, 3, ..., 22), 室 ⢨
 ࠬ஢.
     t = -23 + 2 * n,  1 <= n <= 22, n @ N. 
   _                                                   2
   y = 1080.54 + 37.81 * (-23 + 2n) + 0.27 * (-23 + 2n) +
    n                 3                                    2
   + 0.01 * (-23 + 2n)  = 1080.54 - 869.63 + 75.62n + 1.08n  -
                            3        2
   - 24.84n + 142.83 + 0.08n  - 2.76n + 31.74n - 121.67 =
                            2        3
   = 232.07 + 82.52n - 1.68n  + 0.08n
     ⥫쭮 
  _                                2          3
  y = 232.07 + 82.52 * t - 1.68 * t + 0.08 * t,  1 <= t <= 22.
   t
     ⮡ ⢥न 뢮  ਣ ࠡ 3- -
  ⢥ ७,  室 ᯮ짮  ᯥᨮ
.
                                                  13.
      饩  砩 ਠ権 ᪮ 鸞 -
    1992 . -  1994 .
Ŀ
N                              _           _ 2       _  2
               y        y      (y - y)   (y - y ) 
.                              ti      i         i   ti 
Ĵ
         A            1        2         3         4     
Ĵ
1  1992 .   353.6    312.99  593117.0201649.1721 
2  1992 .     429     391.03  482664.9311441.7209 
3  1992 .   409.3    466.67  510425.8133291.3169 
4 ﭢ 1993 .    478.6    540.39  416206.7933818.0041 
5 䥢ࠫ 1993 .   572.6    612.67  303756.3021605.6049 
6  1993 .       666     683.99  209526.740 323.6401 
7 ५ 1993 .    726.9    754.83  157482.707 780.0849 
8  1993 .       912.7    825.67  44538.26537574.2209 
9  1993 .     1081.7    896.99  1767.4380434117.7841
10 1993 .     1023.7    969.27  10008.18352962.6249 
11 1993 .    986.1   1042.99  18945.01993236.4721 
12ᥭ 1993   1077.7   1118.63  2119.765311675.2649 
13 1993 .  1187.2   1196.67  4027.05622 89.6809  
14 1993 .   1196.4   1277.59  5279.343496591.8161 
15 1993 .  1240.9   1361.87  13726.252614633.7409
16ﭢ 1994 .   1416.9   1449.99  85942.25261094.9481 
17䥢ࠫ 1994 .  1586.8   1542.43  214423.7221968.6969 
18 1994 .     1719.4   1639.67  354809.7536356.8729 
19५ 1994 .   1794.4   1742.19  449783.6162725.8841 
20 1994 .      1876.6   1850.47  566796.811 682.7769 
21 1994 .     1958.4   1964.99  696655.798 43.4281  
22 1994 .     2027.4   2086.23  816599.7533460.9689 
Ĵ
  ⮣            24722.3  24728.22 5958603.33100124.725

     ਠ V   = 5958603.33
                    

    砩 ਠ V  = 100124.725
                        e
    ਠ ᫥⢨ ⥭樨 V    = V   - V = 5858478.61
                                   f(t)       e
                                    2
    ᯥ ᫥⢨ ⥭樨 &    = V    / 3 = 1952826.20
                                    f(t)   f(t)
                         2
    C砩 ᯥ &  = V  / 18 = 5562.485
                             
                                          2      2
    ᪮ 祭 F- F = &    / &  = 351.07
                                          f(t)   
    । ᪮ 祭 F-. ᫮ ⥯
᢮ k1 = 3, k2 = 18.  ஢ 稬 a = 0.05
F = 3.16,  ⥫쭮 , 祬 F.
 k
      ࠧ, 㥬 ࠢ ७ 筮
筮 ⮡ࠦ ᭮ ⥭.
      ⥯ ७  ᪮ 鸞  ਢ⨧-
樮 祪.\17
                                                     14.
         । ࠬ஢   ⥫쭮 㭪権,
       ७ ᪮ 鸞  ਢ⨧樮 祪.
Ŀ
N               t       t^2      y       t * y    lg(y)   t*lg(y) 
Ĵ
         A           1        2        3        4        5        6    
Ĵ
1  1992 .   -21      441    6654.4  -139742.4  3.823    -80.3  
2  1992 .    -19      361    5723.9  -108754.1  3.758    -71.4  
3  1992 .   -17      289    6408.8  -108949.6  3.807    -64.7  
4 ﭢ 1993 .    -15      225    5470.9  -82063.5   3.738    -56.1  
5 䥢ࠫ 1993 .   -13      169    4787.5  -62237.5   3.680    -47.8  
6  1993 .      -11      121    4294.6  -47240.6   3.633    -40.0  
7 ५ 1993 .    -9       81     4218.8  -37969.2   3.625    -32.6  
8  1993 .       -7       49     4920.7  -34444.9   3.692    -25.8  
9  1993 .      -5       25      8514    -42570    3.930    -19.7  
10 1993 .      -3        9     9293.3  -27879.9   3.968    -11.9  
11 1993 .    -1        1     9658.2   -9658.2   3.985    -3.98  
12ᥭ 1993     1        1     10619.8  10619.8   4.026    4.026  
13 1993 .    3        9      11885    35655    4.075    12.22  
14 1993 .     5       25     25803.3 129016.5   4.412    22.06  
15 1993 .    7       49     23192.2 162345.4   4.365    30.56  
16ﭢ 1994 .     9       81     23442.9 210986.1   4.370    39.33  
17䥢ࠫ 1994 .   11       121    20901.3 229914.3   4.320    47.52  
18 1994 .      13       169    28672.6 372743.8   4.457    57.95  
19५ 1994 .    15       225    38434.8  576522    4.585    68.77  
20 1994 .       17       289    34388.5 584604.5   4.536    77.12  
21 1994 .      19       361    34751.9 660286.1   4.541    86.28  
22 1994 .      21       441    40735.3 855441.3   4.610    96.81  
Ĵ
  ⮣              0      3542    362772.73126624.9  89.94    88.36  

\*      ⮣  ⠡ 12 ⠥ ࠬ ࠢ.
       㭪樨:
          Sy   362772.7
     a0 =  =   = 16489.67;
          22     22

          St*y   3126624.9
     a1 =  =    = 882.73
          St^2      3542
                     _
      ࠧ,  y = 16489.67 + 882.73 * t
                      t
      ⥫쭮 㭪樨:
           Slg(y)      89.94
                
     a0 =   22    =     22   = 12247.39
          10        10

            St*lg(y)     88.36
                
     a1 =    St^2   =    3542  = 1.06
          10          10
                     _                  t
      ࠧ,  y = 12247.39 * 1.06
                      t
                                                 15.
 । ࠬ஢ ࠡ ண  쥣 浪,
       ७ ᪮ 鸞  .\17
Ŀ
 N      t         t^2        t^3        t^4        t^6         y         t*y      t^2*y       t^3*y   
Ĵ
        1          2          3          4          5          6          7          8          9     
Ĵ
1      -21        441       -9261     194481     85766121   6654.4    -139742.4  2934590.4 -61626398.4
2      -19        361       -6859     130321     47045881   5723.9    -108754.1  2066327.9 -39260230.1
3      -17        289       -4913      83521     24137569   6408.8    -108949.6  1852143.2 -31486434.4
4      -15        225       -3375      50625     11390625   5470.9    -82063.5   1230952.5 -18464287.5
5      -13        169       -2197      28561      4826809   4787.5    -62237.5   809087.5  -10518137.5
6      -11        121       -1331      14641      1771561   4294.6    -47240.6   519646.6  -5716112.6 
7      -9         81        -729       6561       531441    4218.8    -37969.2   341722.8  -3075505.2 
8      -7         49        -343       2401       117649    4920.7    -34444.9   241114.3  -1687800.1 
9      -5         25        -125        625        15625     8514      -42570     212850    -1064250  
10     -3          9         -27        81          729     9293.3    -27879.9    83639.7   -250919.1 
11     -1          1         -1          1           1      9658.2     -9658.2    9658.2     -9658.2  
12      1          1          1          1           1      10619.8    10619.8    10619.8    10619.8  
13      3          9         27         81          729      11885      35655     106965     320895   
14      5         25         125        625        15625    25803.3   129016.5   645082.5   3225412.5 
15      7         49         343       2401       117649    23192.2   162345.4   1136417.8  7954924.6 
16      9         81         729       6561       531441    23442.9   210986.1   1898874.9 17089874.1 
17     11         121       1331       14641      1771561   20901.3   229914.3   2529057.3 27819630.3 
18     13         169       2197       28561      4826809   28672.6   372743.8   4845669.4 62993702.2 
19     15         225       3375       50625     11390625   38434.8    576522     8647830   129717450 
20     17         289       4913       83521     24137569   34388.5   584604.5   9938276.5 168950700.5
21     19         361       6859      130321     47045881   34751.9   660286.1  12545435.9 238363282.1
22     21         441       9261      194481     85766121   40735.3   855441.3  17964267.3 377249613.3
Ĵ
S       0        3542         0       1023638   351208022   362772.7  3126624.9 70570229.5 860536371.3

\1*      ⮣  ⠡ 13 ⠥ ࠬ ࠢ.
      ࠡ ண 浪:
          St^4 * Sy - St^2 * St^2*y
     a0 =  =
             22 St^4 - (ST^2)^2

       1023638 * 362772.7 - 3542 * 70570229.5
     =  = 12170.13
                22 * 1023638 - 3542^2

          St*y   3126624.9
     a1 =  =  = 882.73
          St^2     3542

          22 St^2*y - St^2 * Sy
     a2 =  =
           22 St^4 - (St^2)^2

       22 * 70570229.5 - 3542 * 362772.7
     =   = 26.83
            22 * 1023638 - 3542 ^ 2
                     _                                    2
      ࠧ,  y = 12170.13 + 882.73 * t + 26.83 * t
                      t
      ࠡ 쥣 浪:
          St^4 * Sy - St^2 * St^2*y
     a0 =  =
             22 St^4 - (ST^2)^2

       1023638 * 362772.7 - 3542 * 70570229.5
     =  = 12170.13
                22 * 1023638 - 3542^2

          St^6 * St*y - St^4 * St^3*y
     a1 =  =
            St^2 * St^6 - (St^4)^2

       351208022 * 3126624.9 - 1023638 * 860536371.3
     =   = 1107.44
               3542 * 351208022 - 1023638^2

          22 St^2*y - St^2 * Sy
     a2 =  =
           22 St^4 - (St^2)^2

        22 * 70570229.5 - 3542 * 362772.7
     =    = 26.83
             22 * 1023638 - 3542 ^ 2

          St^2 * St^3*y - St^4 * St*y
     a3 =  =
            St^2 * St^6 - (St^4)^2

       3542 * 860536371.3 - 1023638 * 3126624.9
     =   = -0.78
            3542 * 351208022 - 1023638^2

      ࠧ,
_                                     2          3
y = 12170.13 + 1107.44 * t + 26.83 * t - 0.78 * t
 t
     ⠪,   ७ 鸞     -
६ ⥬᪨ 㭪  ᨭ⥧஢   ७
:
       _
   1)  y = 16489.67 + 882.73 * t
        t
       _                  t
   2)  y = 12247.39 * 1.06
        t
       _                                    2
   3)  y = 12170.13 + 882.73 * t + 26.83 * t
        t
       _                                     2          3
   4)  y = 12170.13 + 1107.44 * t + 26.83 * t - 0.78 * t
        t
     ⮡  ,       -
  ⭮, 室 ࠢ  㬬 ⮢ ⪫-
 ⥮᪨ ஢  ᪨.
\17                                                                                16.
              । 㬬 ⮢ ⪫ ⥮᪨ ஢  ᪨ 
              ७ ᪮ 鸞     1992 . -  1994 .
Ŀ
                        ᪨ ஢               ⪫ ⥮᪨       
N                        㭪権                ஢  䠪᪨  㭪権       
    t    Ĵ
.            y   - ࠡ볯ࠡ     -   ࠡ   ࠡ  
                           ⥫쭮2 -3 -             ⥫쭮  2 浪3 浪
Ĵ
      1       2       3       4       5       6        7          8          9          10    
Ĵ
1    -21   6654.4 -2047.663602.6365464.83  7969.5 75725848.249313263.8921415076.7851729488.01 
2    -19   5723.9 -282.2  4047.9225083.89 6164.42 36073237.212808903.129409612.8001194057.8704
3    -17    6408  1483.26 4548.2454917.59 4929.66 24253064.073458689.1562221321.9682185489.156
4    -15   5470.9 3248.72 5110.4084965.93 4227.78 4938083.952129954.5309254994.70091545347.334
5    -13   4787.5 5014.18 5742.0545228.91 4021.34 51383.8224 911174.0121194842.7881587001.1456
6    -11   4294.6 6779.64 6451.7725706.53  4272.9 6175423.8024653392.2051993546.325  470.89   
7    -9    4218.8  8545.1 7249.2116398.79 4945.02 18716871.699183392.7884752356.400527395.4884
8    -7    4920.7 10310.568145.2147305.69 6000.26 29050590.8210397489.525688177.3001165449.794
9    -5     8514  12076.029151.9628427.23 7401.18 12687986.48406995.8628 7529.0329 1238368.352
10   -3    9293.3 13841.4810283.149763.41 9110.34 20685941.31979792.7495221003.412133474.3616 
11   -1    9658.2 15606.9411554.1411314.2311090.3 35387507.593594594.2072742435.3612050910.41 
12    1    10619.817372.4 12982.2313079.6913303.6245597606.765581091.5696051058.8127202889.792
13    3     11885 19137.8614586.8415059.7915712.8652603978.187299925.59710079291.5414652512.18
14    5    25803.320903.3216389.7717254.5318280.5824009804.0088614536.5873081468.5156591316.20
15    7    23192.222668.7818415.5519663.9120969.34273968.496422816421.5512448830.324941106.580
16    9    23442.924434.2420691.7122287.9323741.7 982754.99567569059.0291333955.701 89281.44  
17   11    20901.326199.7 23249.2025126.5926560.2228073042.565512647.46617853075.5832023375.57
18   13    28672.627965.1626122.8028179.8929387.46500471.35366501458.397242763.1441511024.8196
19   15    38434.829730.6229351.5831447.8332185.9875762749.4782504833.8248817749.7839047751.39
20   17    34388.531496.0832979.4434930.4134918.348366093.4561985454.343293666.4481280730.4256
21   19    34751.933261.5437055.7038627.6337547.1 2221172.9305307481.01315021283.037813143.04 
22   21    40735.3 35027  41635.7842539.4940034.8232584688.89810866.47383255101.556490672.2304
Ĵ
S     0   362772.7362772.7349347.3362774.7362774.7534722270.1280341417.9208379141.3174901256.5

\*      ࠢ 祭 祭  㬬 ⮢ ⪫-
 ⥮᪨ ஢  ᪨ ᫥,   -
 쭮 稭   ⥫  ।⥭
᫥ ⤠ ७ 
   _                                     2          3
   y = 12170.13 + 1107.44 * t + 26.83 * t - 0.78 * t
    t
          ࠬ஢  ⥬᪨  ࠢ 
짮 ᯮᮡ     ᫮ . ⮡ ।-
⠢ ७  㭪, ।  ⠭⭮ 
⨬ 祭 ६ t (1, 2, 3, ..., 22),室
⢨  ࠬ஢.
     t = -23 + 2 * n,  1 <= n <= 22, n @ N. 
   _                                                       2
   y = 12170.13 + 1107.44 * (-23 + 2n) + 26.83 * (-23 + 2n) -
    n                 3
   - 0.78 * (-23 + 2n)  = 12170.13 + 2214.88n - 25471.12 +
            2                              3          2
   + 107.32n  - 2468.36n + 14193.07 - 6.24n  + 215.28n  -
                                                     2       3
   - 2475.72n + 9490.26 = 10382.34 - 2729.2n + 322.6n - 6.24n
     ⥫쭮 
_                                    2          3
y = 10382.34 - 2729.2 * t + 322.6 * t - 6.24 * t,  1 <= t <= 22.
 t
     ⮡ ⢥न 뢮  ਣ ࠡ 3- -
  ⢥ ७,  室 ᯮ짮  ᯥᨮ
.
                                                  17.
      饩  砩 ਠ権 ᪮ 鸞 -
 ਢ⨧樮 祪   1992 . -  1994 .\12
Ŀ
N                                 _             _ 2         _  2 
                y          y        (y - y)     (y - y )  
.                                 ti        i           i   ti  
Ĵ
         A             1          2           3           4      
Ĵ
1  1992 .   6654.4      7969.5   96732500.208 1729488.01 
2  1992 .    5723.9     6164.42   115901764.55194057.8704 
3  1992 .   6408.8     4929.66   101623903.302187855.1396
4 ﭢ 1993 .    5470.9     4227.78   121413252.251545347.3344
5 䥢ࠫ 1993 .   4787.5     4021.34   136940740.16587001.1456 
6  1993 .      4294.6      4272.9   148719687.96   470.89   
7 ५ 1993 .    4218.8     4945.02   150574205.94527395.4884 
8  1993 .       4920.7     6000.26   133841024.791165449.7936
9  1993 .       8514      7401.18   63611282.9471238368.3524
10 1993 .      9293.3     9110.34   51787715.008 33474.3616 
11 1993 .    9658.2     11090.3   46668957.519 2050910.41 
12ᥭ 1993   10619.8     13303.62  34455352.4727202889.7924
13 1993 .   11885      15712.86  21202969.06514652512.180
14 1993 .   25803.3     18280.58  86743737.64556591316.198
15 1993 .  23192.2     20969.34  44923932.7744941106.5796
16ﭢ 1994 .   23442.9     23741.7   48347432.717  89281.44  
17䥢ࠫ 1994 .  20901.3     26560.22  19462495.29932023375.566
18 1994 .     28672.6     29387.46  148423827.69511024.8196 
19५ 1994 .   38434.8     32185.98  481588810.5239047751.392
20 1994 .      34388.5     34918.34  320368180.46280730.4256 
21 1994 .     34751.9     37547.1   333509110.98 7813143.04 
22 1994 .     40735.3     40034.82  587850662.26490672.2304 
Ĵ
  ⮣            362772.7    362774.7  3294691546.5174903622.46

\*     ਠ V   = 3294691546.5
                    

    砩 ਠ V  = 174903622.46
                        e
    ਠ ᫥⢨ ⥭樨 V    = V   - V = 3119787924.0
                                   f(t)       e
                                    2
    ᯥ ᫥⢨ ⥭樨 &    = V    / 3 = 1039929308.0
                                    f(t)   f(t)
                         2
    C砩 ᯥ &  = V  / 18 = 9716867.9145
                             
                                          2      2
    ᪮ 祭 F- F = &    / &  = 107.02
                                          f(t)   
    । ᪮ 祭 F-. ᫮ ⥯
᢮ k1 = 3, k2 = 18.  ஢ 稬 a = 0.05
F = 3.16,  ⥫쭮 , 祬 F.
 k
      ࠧ, 㥬 ࠢ ७ 筮
筮 ⮡ࠦ  ᭮ ⥭   ਢ⨧樮
祪.
        ६ ᭮  ࠢ ᮢ  䠪᪨
祭 F-ਥ ᪨ 冷 ᮢ   -
⨧樮 祪.    ᬠਢ -
 ਠ  ७;       -
⨬      쥩 ⥯.  䠪᪮
祭  F-  ࢮ  㥬  ᪮
鸞 ( ) ⥫쭮 , 祬  (351.07>107.02).
 ࠢ 뢠,  砩  ࠦ
 ᨫ쭮  ᪮ 拉   ਢ⨧樮 -
.   ⠡쭮 ஦ ४ -
   ᯥ⨢ , ,     
, ᮯ஢ ⮬ ᪮.  ᪨ -
 뢠,   ࢠ⨢  ࠧ 
ਥ ਪ᪨ .
     ,  । ⥬᪨ ࠢ, -
騥 ᭮ ⥭樨 ᮢ     ਢ-
樮 祪,   ந  ࠢ. ० ᥣ
襬 ᠬ ࠢ.
  _                                2          3
  y = 232.07 + 82.52 * t - 1.68 * t + 0.08 * t - ७  
   t                                                
  _                                       2          3
  y =  10382.34  -  2729.2 * t + 322.6 * t - 6.24 * t - ७
   t                             ਢ⨧樮 祪
     ७  ࠢ  t, 稬 ⥬᪨
  ᪮ ஢ ᪨ 冷.
  _|                             2
  y = 82.52 - 3.36 * t + 0.16 * t  -  
   t
  _|                                  2
  y = - 2729.2 + 645.2 * t - 18.72 * t  -  
   t
        㭪樨   ⥬-
᪨ ⮤,  砥,   ᪮    
 ⥫쭠   t ( ⥭樨), 祬  -
  10 ਮ 뢠,   ⥬  稭  -
. 砫쭠  ᪮  ਢ⨧樮 祪 (-
ਢ  ⥭樨) ⥫쭠,   ⠥    -
⭮ 5  ਮ  室  १ 0 ( 뢠 室
 १ ६쭮 祭 - ).     17
ਮ   ⠥,   18 稭 뢠 (⠢ 
 ᬠਢ ਮ  ⥫쭮 ).
                         祭.
         ⮣  த .
 ⬥,   筮 ⥭樨   -
, ⠪   ਢ⨧樮 祪 ᫨.  ᫨ -
     ⠡쭮, ⮭    -
祭 ६,   ਢ⨧樮 祪   1992
 뢠  襫 १ ६쭮  祭 - 
-  ५ 1993 .  ᫥ ⮣    쭮 让
⥭ᨢ.
       ⥫ ᯥ: ᫨    
殮 ᥣ ᫥㥬 ਮ ⠫ 쭮 -
,  ⥫ ,   ਢ⨧樮 祪 -
뢠 १ ᪠窨  ⪠.
     ।  ᪮      뫠 ⥫쭮
 ᪮   ਢ⨧樮 祪:79.7 /
< 1622.9 /.      ࠧ楩  -
ᮢ ⮨⥩.
     ᬮ  ,   砫 㥬 ਮ 
ਢ⨧樮 祪 뢠,  । ⥭ᨢ -
 ஢  ᪮쪮    ਢ⨧-
 祪,   ਪ᪮ .
      १  ᪮  ࠢ 뫨 祭
⥬᪨   ७  砥 ᪨ 冷.
᭮ ⥭   뢠 ࠢ
  _                                2          3
  y = 232.07 + 82.52 * t - 1.68 * t + 0.08 * t,     
   t
ਢ⨧樮 祪 ࠢ ७ ਭ 
  _                                    2          3
  y = 10382.34 - 2729.2 * t + 322.6 * t - 6.24 * t.
   t
     砩  ࠧ ᨫ쭥 뫠 ࠦ  -
᪮ 拉  ਢ⨧樮 祪.  ⭮,
⢥ত ᯥᨮ . 砩 ਠ ⠢-
﫠 ࠧ   饩 ਠ樨  拉  -
,   拉   .
      ᢥ ᪠ ᫥ ⬥,    
䨭ᮢ ⨢  ᫥  ᯮ짮   ࢠ⨢
᪮ , ᯥ稢  ⠡  室-
.   ᫥   ᪮ -
 䥫, 뢠 १   ᮢ ⮨ 
⤥ ६ ࢠ.
     - १   ਢ⨧樮 祪 
뫮 ᯮ짮   १砩 䥪⨢,  ᮪-
 থ .   ६ ᢥਡ   -
   ,  ਡ  ᠬ  -
ࠦ,  뫮 ࠧ ᫮.
                     ᮪ .
     줨襢 .. ᪨  ᪨ 冷.
- ., "⨪", 1974.
     줨襢 ..,  饭 ..,   .. -
᪮ 祭 ᭮ ⥭樨 ࠧ   裡  
鸞 . - , 1985.
     ⢨ ..,  .. ᪨ ⮤ -
   䥪⨢ ᥫ᪮宧⢥ ந-
⢠. - ., 1987.
      ⥮  ⨪:  ᪠  ⮤ 
祭 ᪮ ⥫쭮.   ।.  ਭ  ..,
設 .. - ., "  ⨪", 1994.
     "ᨩ᪠ " 1992-1993 .
     "" 1993 .
     "ᠭ" 1993 .
     "  " 1993-1994 .
     "-Daily" 1993-1994 .
